{"id":8196,"date":"2017-01-06T17:05:46","date_gmt":"2017-01-06T16:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sciencetonnante.wordpress.com\/?p=8196"},"modified":"2017-01-06T17:05:46","modified_gmt":"2017-01-06T16:05:46","slug":"risques-decisions-et-incertitudes-la-theorie-des-perspectives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/2017\/01\/06\/risques-decisions-et-incertitudes-la-theorie-des-perspectives\/","title":{"rendered":"Risques, d\u00e9cisions et incertitudes : la th\u00e9orie des perspectives"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Un nouvel \u00e9pisode de \u00ab\u00a0Cr\u00e9tin de cerveau\u00a0\u00bb qui tourne autour de la prise de d\u00e9cision en environnement incertain, et particuli\u00e8rement de la th\u00e9orie des perspectives de Kahneman &amp; Tversky.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"Risques, d\u00e9cisions et incertitudes \u2014 Cr\u00e9tin de cerveau #5\" width=\"770\" height=\"433\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MCg2lw4Nxno?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Pas grand chose \u00e0 ajouter aujourd&rsquo;hui, les f\u00e9rus de d\u00e9tails trouveront plein d&rsquo;infos dans l&rsquo;\u00e9pais et s\u00e9minal papier des deux auteurs :<\/p>\n<div id=\"gs_cit0\" class=\"gs_citr\">Kahneman, D., &amp; Tversky, A. (1979). <a href=\"https:\/\/engineering.purdue.edu\/~ipollak\/ece302\/SPRING12\/notes\/Prospect_Theory_an_Analysis_of_Decision_under_Risk_Kahneman_Tversky_1979.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.<\/a> <i>Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society<\/i>, 263-291.<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\"><\/div>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\">Un point int\u00e9ressant dont je n&rsquo;ai pas du tout parl\u00e9 : in fine Kahneman et Tversky penchent pour une courbe des probabilit\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0ressenties\u00a0\u00bb qui n&rsquo;est pas exactement celle que j&rsquo;ai esquiss\u00e9e. Ils argumentent en effet pour une sous-estimation syst\u00e9matique, m\u00eame dans la zone interm\u00e9diaire, qui donne \u00e0 la courbe l&rsquo;allure suivante :<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/capture-d_ecc81cran-2017-01-06-acc80-13-29-28.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8197 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/capture-d_ecc81cran-2017-01-06-acc80-13-29-28.png\" alt=\"capture-decran-2017-01-06-a-13-29-28\" width=\"374\" height=\"363\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/capture-d_ecc81cran-2017-01-06-acc80-13-29-28.png 374w, https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/capture-d_ecc81cran-2017-01-06-acc80-13-29-28-300x291.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 374px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 374\/363;\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\">Une des bizarreries de cette courbe est qu&rsquo;elle n&rsquo;est pas sym\u00e9trique par rapport au point (0.5,0.5), et ne satisfait pas :<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\" style=\"text-align:center;\">\\(\\pi(p) + \\pi(1-p) = 1\\)<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"gs_citr\">ce qui personnellement me perturbe !<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un nouvel \u00e9pisode de \u00ab\u00a0Cr\u00e9tin de cerveau\u00a0\u00bb qui tourne autour de la prise de d\u00e9cision en environnement incertain, et particuli\u00e8rement de la th\u00e9orie des perspectives de Kahneman &amp; Tversky. Pas grand chose \u00e0 ajouter aujourd&rsquo;hui, les f\u00e9rus de d\u00e9tails trouveront plein d&rsquo;infos dans l&rsquo;\u00e9pais et s\u00e9minal papier des deux auteurs : Kahneman, D., &amp; Tversky,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[10],"class_list":{"0":"post-8196","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-sciences-sociales","7":"tag-economie-comportementale"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8196"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8196\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceetonnante.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}